UFC 301 odds, pick and prediction for Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg: 3 strategies for main event for Saturday 5/4

Alexandre Pantoja vs. Steve Erceg Odds

This fight represents a massive step up in competition for the challenger, who is just 3-0 in the UFC and has never been beyond the 15-minute mark in his professional career.

Below, I'll provide my analysis and projections for the UFC 301 main event and utilize those factors to bet on the fight with my Erceg vs. Pantoja pick and prediction, who should make their cage walks at approximately 11:59 p.m. ET (8:59 p.m. PT) on ESPN+ PPV.

Tale of the Tape

Erceg is the taller, longer man in this matchup and the younger fighter.

Pantoja is on the wrong side of the age curve for the flyweight weight class (average divisional age of 30) and could experience athletic regression soon in his career. Fractional differences in speed make more significant differences in lighter weight classes; UFC fighters who are 35 and older have a woeful record in UFC title bouts at 170 pounds and lighter.

At age 28, Erceg is in his physical prime, but we still have questions about his skill set. The Aussie is a sharp boxer with an accurate jab and crisp combinations, and he doesn't waste any energy or movement inside the octagon.

As a result, while we haven't seen Erceg's cardio across a 25-minute fight, he seemingly has the style and patience to manage his energy levels and extend beyond three rounds.

Erceg seems durable – but he has been knocked down in the UFC – and his grappling and scrambling abilities are competitive for the level. Still, we haven't seen him against a jiu-jitsu practitioner as potent or lethal as Pantoja.

Additionally, we haven't seen Erceg defend against a back take – which is Pantoja's preferred position to finish fights (eight of 10 submission wins by rear-naked choke or neck crank) or rest as he's tiring.

From Pantoja's perspective, Erceg is likely a lesser defensive grappler than his recent opponents (Moreno and Brandon Royval) and potentially represents a step down in competition compared to those challengers. Pantoja doesn't show great body language as his fights extend, but he always finds a way to fight through exhaustion. He'll also force Erceg into a higher-paced fight – and the grittier Pantoja can make things better for his chances.

Pantoja often starts aggressively and can overwhelm certain opponents with grappling from the outset.

Erceg has more questions concerning his readiness for the moment, dealing with a hostile crowd, managing his cardio in the championship rounds after a potentially high pace, and neutralizing Pantoja's grappling skill to extend the fight.

If he can keep this fight standing, Erceg has a chance to make things extremely competitive, especially early. Still, I'd expect Pantoja to find Erceg's back at some point and work his way back into the fight.

Ideally, I'd take plus money on either fighter – and I like this matchup from a live-betting perspective.

Pantoja vs. Erceg Pick

I projected Steve Erceg as a +147 underdog (40.5% implied) in this matchup, and I'd bet him pre-fight (small) at +160 or better.

From there, I'd look to live bet Pantoja at plus money or a pick'em price anytime after Round 1. I expect Erceg to win one of the first two rounds.

I expect this fight to end inside the distance 53% of the time, so I don't see value concerning the total.

However, I weigh slightly more submission equity to Pantoja (projected +274, listed +325) or decision equity to Erceg (projected +393, listed +460) than the betting market. I show value on either winning method prop.

If I don't find the right price on Erceg pre-fight, I'd take some Pantoja by submission (+300 or better) instead.

The Picks: Steve Erceg (+160 or better) or Alexandre Pantoja by Submission (+300 or better) | Alexandre Pantoja live any time after Round 1